win
NBA Pick: Dallas Mavs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the American Airlines Center in Dallas to face the Dallas MavericksWednesday night February 1. The Thunder are leading their division even though they lost a tough game against the Los Angeles Clippers Monday night in Los Angeles. Nevertheless, they have won 8 of their last 10 and enjoy a 16-4 record. The Mavericks are leading their division at 14-8 are the defending NBA champions, have won three straight and 7 of their last 10. This all makes for a very competitive matchup.
Oklahoma is lead by scoring machine Kevin Durant. Durant is averaging 26.8 points and nearly 8 rebounds per game. In Monday nights’ loss to the Clippers, Durant poured in 36 points and hauled down 13 rebounds. The Mavericks are lead by veteran forward Dirk Nowitzki who is averaging 16.7 points per game. Jason Kidd leads the team in both assists and steals, while Brendan Haywood is leading the team with 7 rebounds per game.
This season the Thunder are 11-9 ATS and 6-5 ATS while on the road. The Mavericks are 14-8 ATS and 8-4 ATS when playing on their home court. Head to head Dallas is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against Oklahoma City. The total has been OVER in 6 of the last 10 games the two teams have played head to head.
Oklahoma is 4-1 SU over their last five games but in those five games the only top team they faced was the Clippers and they lost by 12. The Mavericks on the other hand are also 4-1 SU in their last five games but have beaten Phoenix twice and were victorious last Sunday against San Antonio.
Dallas is playing at home and enjoys a good record of winning both ATS and SU on their home court. Nowitzki is starting to get into game shape and they have played far better competition over their last five games than Oklahoma City has. In a high scoring game, the Mavericks will win ATS.
Arizona State vs. Boise State MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
- Boise State QB Kellen Moore
The Arizona State Sun Devils and the Boise State Broncos will both be trying to pick up a win on December22 when they battle at Sam Boyd Stadium in the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 15-point favorites versus the Sun Devils, while the game’s total is sitting at 69.
Arizona State was a 47-38 loser in its last match at home against California. They failed to cover the 6?point spread as favorites, while the total score of 85 sent OVER bettors to the payout window.
Boise State won its last outing, a 45-0 result against New Mexico on December 3. Boise State failed to cover in that game as a 47.5-point favorite, while the 45 combined points took the game UNDER the total.
SA Take: Arizona State plays tougher opponents and is in a better conference. They have a good football team. Boise State is ranked 7th in the nation. At first glance everything points to Bosie with an easy win and cover. The public thinks so too with more than 80% of them betting Boise State as well. We have to go with Boise here but see if you can buy a point and bring this down to -13.5. Just in case it lands on 14 even.
Team records:
Arizona State: 6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
Boise State: 11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS
Arizona State most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
Boise State most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona State’s last 6 games
Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Boise State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boise State’s last 8 games
Boise State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
BetOnline proclaims RG3 the Heisman winner
- QB Griffin from Baylor
Well maybe it’s not official yet, but all you need to do is look at BetOnline.com’s Heisman Trophy odds to determine that it is a foregone conclusion that Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will win college football’s most prestigious individual award Saturday.
Once the five Heisman finalists were announced last weekend, BetOnline named Alabama running back Trent Richardson the -170 favorite. That quickly changed as money started pouring in on RG3 at +300. Within a couple of hours after opening the odds, RG3 was the new favorite at BetOnline.
Despite the constant odds changes, bettors kept pounding RG3. Less than a week later and RG3 is the massive -2000 favorite.
“It’s rare to see such an explosive move in odds like that,” stated BetOnline’s Dave Mason. “It’s pretty obvious to me anyways that word has leaked – RG3 will definitely collect the hardware Saturday.”
Others disagree with Mason’s sentiments as money is still coming in on the other finalists. Who is your money on? Do you think RG3 is a lock, or is there value in the earlier favorites – Richardson and Andrew Luck?
BetOnline 2011 Heisman betting odds
Robert Griffin III -2000
Trent Richardson +375
Andrew Luck +500
Montee Ball +2500
Tyrann Mathieu +4500
Odds are subject to change.
SA Take: We like a small play on Richardson and a medium play on Luck here. No way we would lay those heavy odds on a QB from Baylor.
More about BetOnline.com
NFL Preview: Tampa Bay at Green Bay
- The fans at Lambeau Field will be treated to a game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers when they take their seats on Sunday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 15-point favorites versus the Buccaneers, while the game’s total is sitting at 49.
Last time out for Tampa Bay, they were a 37-9 loser as they battled the Texans at home. The Buccaneers failed to cover in the match as a 3.5-point underdog, while 46 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.
Last time out for Green Bay, they were a 45-7 winner as they battled the Vikings at home. The Packers covered in the match as a 12.5-point favorite, while 52 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.
Sortsbook Advisor: We didn’t pick so well yesterday so we are a little gunshy about today. But we feel good all week about our NFL. We are going against the grain and taking Tampa +15. And Even sprinkling a little on Tampa +700 for the upset win outright.
Current streak:
Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight games.
Green Bay has won 9 straight games.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS
Green Bay: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 4-6
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Tampa Bay’s last 20 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games at home
Next up:
Tampa Bay at Tennessee, Sunday, November 27
Green Bay at Detroit, Thursday, November 24
stats by bodog
Winning Football: “D” Comes Before “O”
So what do you prefer: offense or defense? Most casual bettors examining NFL picks like offense, which is why Monday night football games often take more action on the over. There have been some terrific offensive football teams that last few years, such as USC and Texas in 2005, and pro passing attacks like the Rams, Colts, Dick Vermeil’s Chiefs, the 2007 Patriots and this year’s Saints, Chargers, Packers, Pats and even the surprising Bills.
However, name the last few Super Bowl winners? The Packers, Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Pats and Bucs. Last season everyone was impressed with the high flying Green Bay offense, but the fact is their defense was very talented under Dom Capers, ranked 5th in total defense, 5th against the pass. The team they beat in the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh, was second in total defense, No. 1 against the run. The team they beat in the AFC Championship game? The Jets, a team built around its defense.
Two years ago was a bit of an aberration with the high flying Saints and Colts meeting in the Super Bowl, but more often than not the superior defensive team stands out. Even so, the team the Saints upset, the Colts, were no defensive dynamos, ranked 18th in total defense, 24th against the run.
In 2008 the Arizona Cardinals had the flashy offense and were the big surprise, but the top defensive team in the league, Pittsburgh, topped them in the big game. In 2007 defense shut down offense as the Giants topped the record-setting Patriots’ offense.
In 2006 Indy was unusual, in that their run defense was poor during the regular season, then caught fire in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Bears were No. 1 in total defense. Back in 2005, the Steelers and Seahawks met in the Super Bowl. They were two of the top run defenses in the league and Pittsburgh was No. 4 in total defense. The Patriots won three Super Bowls with a better defense than offense. Their 2002 team didn’t make the playoffs and the reason was obvious, the second worst run defense, a flaw they fixed and the result was back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
That 2002 season the Super Bowl was a fascinating match-up that pitted the No. 1 offense, Oakland, against the No. 1 defense in Tampa Bay. The Raiders averaged 28.1 points per game, while the Bucs ranked 18th in scoring with 21.6 ppg. This is partly why the Raiders were a 4-point favorite on Super Sunday, but what was the outcome? Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21.
Defense still rules and is an important factor when assessing NFL picks. Defense, in all sports, doesn’t get the publicity that a flashy, exciting offense does, but there is so much truth in that age-old adage “Defense wins championships.” Pittsburgh won four Super Bowl titles in six years from 1975-80 with Hall-of-Famers Terry Bradshaw, Lynn Swann and Franco Harris on offense. But the cornerstone of that run was a defense for the ages led by L.C. Greenwood, Joe Greene, Mel Blount, and Jack Ham.
Note that four of the last eight Super Bowl champions had major deficiencies on offense, yet won with strong all-around defenses. The 2005 Steelers were 23rd in passing. Many laughed at the Baltimore Ravens in 2000 when they went five straight games without an offensive touchdown, but the Ravens laughed all the way to the Super Bowl, going 14-5-1 against the spread dominating with a ferocious defense. Here are the defensive rankings of the last 12 Super Bowl champions and their spread marks:
Super Bowl Champs – ATS Record – Defensive Rank
1996 Packers: 12-6-1 ATS – No. 1 (4th rushing, 1st passing)
1997 Broncos: 13-7 ATS – No. 5 (16th rushing, 5th passing)
1998 Broncos: – 12-7 ATS – No. 11 (3rd rushing, 25th passing)
1999 Rams: 14-4-1 ATS – No. 6 (1st rushing, 23rd passing)
2000 Ravens: 14-5-1 ATS – No. 2 (1st rushing, 9th passing)
2001 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS – No. 24 (18th rushing, 24th passing)
2002 Bucs: 12-6 ATS – No. 1 (6th rushing, 1st passing)
2003 Patriots: 14-4-1 ATS – No. 7 (3rd rushing, 18th passing)
2004 Patriots: 13-5-1 ATS – No. 9 (6th rushing, 17th passing)
2005 Steelers: 13-7 ATS – No. 4 (3rd rushing, 16th passing)
2006 Colts: 12-8 ATS- No. 15 (32nd rushing, 3rd passing)
2007 Giants: 14-6 ATS – No. 7 (8th rushing, 11th passing)
2008 Steelers: 11-8 ATS – No. 1 (2nd rushing, 1st passing)
2009 Saints: 10-9 ATS – No. 25 (21st rushing, 26th passing)
2010 Packers: 12-8 ATS – No. 5 (18st rushing, 5th passing)
All the champs were statistically very strong defensively, with the exception of the 2001, the 2006 Colts and the 2008 Saints. In 2001, New England struggled early with injuries and new personnel, but in the second half the ‘D’ held their final nine opponents to 17 points or less. Contrast those numbers with the offensive rankings of the last ten Super Bowl champs: The Ravens were 16th offensively, the Patriots 19th, Tampa Bay was 22nd, the 03′ Pats were 17th, the ’04 Pats 7th, the Steelers 15th, the 2006 Colts third the Giants 16th, the 2008 Steelers 22nd, the 2009 Saints No. 1.
The 1999 Rams had a devastating offense (No. 1), but it was easy to overlook the fact that the Rams had the No. 6 overall defense (No. 1 against the run). The strong offense and defense helped the Rams go 16-3 SU and 14-4-1 ATS on the way to beating Tennessee, 23-16, in Super Bowl XXXIV.
The 2000 Rams’ offense was even better, No. 1 averaging 33.7 points per game. The defense lost head coach Dick Vermeil, defensive coordinator John Bunting, as well as an early-season injury to defensive leader D’Marco Farr. That was plenty, as the unit completely disintegrated, finishing 23rd overall, 27th against the pass while giving up the most points in the NFL (29.4 points per game).
Even though the offense was unstoppable, the defensive collapse caused the Rams to limp into the playoffs as a Wild Card team, where they were quickly eliminated by the Saints, 31-28, as a 6-point favorite. The bad ‘D’ made them a bad bet, as well, going 6-10-1 against the spread. The Pats ended 2007 on a 1-8 ATS run, getting all that publicity on offense, while the Giants were 8-1 ATS. Offense may get all the TV highlights, but defense is still the key to football success.
by YouWinNow.com
