football
NFC Championship Game: 49ers vs. Giants
RB Frank Gore
The New York Giants will travel to San Francisco this weekend to play for the NFC Championship againstthe San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are currently listed as favorites by 3 points. The two teams met earlier in the season in week ten and the 49ers won 27-20. The 49ers defense is one of the best in the league while the Giants offense has scored well of late.
The Giants beat the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers last Sunday 37-20 in Green bay. In that game, they were the underdogs with an 8.5 point spread in the Packers favor. The total score was OVER with the 57 points scored.
The 49ers beat New Orleans in a high scoring affair 36-32. They were the underdogs and therefore covered the spread of 3.5 points while the OVER bettors were happy with 68 total points scored.
The score will be lower in this contest as the trends show in home games the 49ers score has been UNDER in 4 of the last 6 games. The 49ers are 11-4-1 this season ATS. However in their last 6 games against the Giants the 49ers are only 1-4-1 ATS.
Of recent, the Giants are 7-3 when they outgain their opponent. While San Francisco is 7-3 in games, they play in January. In the last 5 games the Giants have played, the total has been UNDER in 4 games. However, on the road, the Giants games have gone OVER in 4 of its last 5.
The 49ers are 5-1 SU against the Giants at home in their last six games. Overall, the 49ers have won 7 of their last 10 games SU against the Giants.
SA Take: We like the 49ers to win and cover the 2.5 and make a trip to the Super Bowl.
AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Ravens
- Ray Rice expected to run only for about 80 yards
The AFC Championship will be settled this weekend when the Baltimore Ravens take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts. The Patriots are considered a nine point favorite as they will be playing at home and are coming off a record setting game by quarterback Tom Brady.
Baltimore struggled against the Houston Texans 20-13 to reach the championship and a possible chance at playing in the Super Bowl. Baltimore was a 7.5 favorite in that game therefore, they did not cover the spread against Houston. UNDER bettors were happy as the total score of 33 was below the line.
New England on the other hand covered their spread 14 point spread against Denver by whalloping the Broncos 45-10. Total points were OVER for the game with the teams combining for 55.
New England is riding a nine game winning streak while Baltimore has won three straight. Baltimore is only 8-7-1 ATS this season while the Patriots are 9-6-1. January records for the two teams are similar. Baltimore has won 7 of 10 in the month, while New England has won 6 of 10. New England holds an edge playing teams outside their division as they have won 8 of their last 10 and the Ravens have won just 7 of their last 10.
Other factors to take into consideration are that Baltimore is 7-1 SU over its last eight games. On the road, the score Baltimore�s last 4 out of 5 games has gone OVER. Against New England, Baltimore�s score has gone UNDER in 4 of 6 games on the road.
Because of their nine game winning streak New England is 9-0 SU. In all five of the last five New England games the score has ended OVER. At home, New England has five straight SU wins. When playing against Baltimore, New England has won seven of the last eight games SU.
New England will take a hard fought 35-21 win to go to reach another Super Bowl.
NFL Playoffs: Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants
The fans at MetLife Stadium will be treated to a game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Giants when they take their seats on Sunday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 3-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game’s total is sitting at 48.
- Eli Manning
Atlanta won its last outing, a 45-24 result against the Buccaneers on January 1. The Falcons covered in that game as a 9.5-point favorite, while the 69 combined points took the game OVER the total.
The Giants were a 31-14 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Cowboys. They covered the 3?point spread as favorites, while the total score (45) made winners of UNDER bettors.
Team records:
Atlanta: 10-6 SU, 7-7-2 ATS
New York: 9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
SA Take: Both teams can put up the points. Offenses should be pumped and ready to go. Neither team had a bye week so there is no time off and they shouldn’t miss a beat. We like the OVER 48. Also, a small play on the Giants.
Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Kansas State (10-2) vs. No. 6 Arkansas (10-2)
- Game preview and picks
Two teams who were passed over for BCS bowls in favor of lesser teams – I’m talking to you Sugar Bowl –face off at Cowboys Stadium on Friday night in the only bowl game of the day when No. 8 Kansas State of the Big 12 faces No. 6 Arkansas of the SEC. The Hogs are 7.5-point college football bets favorites on WagerWeb.com.
Kansas State will be making its bowl appearance after being picked to finish eighth in the Big 12 Conference. When the dust had settled, however, the Wildcats were challenging Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title. The Wildcats lost only to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, in successive weeks.
Arkansas, meanwhile, finished third in the Southeastern Conference’s West Division, behind the BCS title-game finalists, LSU and Alabama. Those two teams gave the Razorbacks their only losses in 2011.
Each team’s offense have found success in different ways this season — the Razorbacks have excelled in the passing game (ranked 13th in the nation among Football Bowl Subdivision schools at 307.8 yards per game) behind QB Tyler Wilson while the Wildcats have done it with their ground game (ranked 27th in the nation at 193.7 ypg) behind dual-threat QB Collin Klein.
The Razorbacks come into the game as one of the most explosive offenses in the nation this season leading the SEC in passing offense (307.8 ypg), total offense (445.8 ypg) and first downs (22.2 per game). The Hogs are ranked second in the SEC and 15th in the FBS in scoring offense (37.4 points per game.
Arkansas racked up 2,000 more passing yards than rushing yards, compared to Kansas State, whose rushing attack outpaced the passing game by over 500 yards. The game, one of three bowls that features two teams ranked in the top 10 of the BCS, figures to be one of the higher scoring bowl games of the season. Arkansas is 15th in the country in scoring (37.4), while Kansas State is 30th (33.1).
Kansas State and Arkansas don’t have much in common. Outside of a top-10 ranking, the first time the Cotton Bowl has hosted such a matchup in 18 years, there’s one big similarity: Neither would have been here without Texas A&M.
Arkansas rallied from the 35-17 deficit at halftime to win 42-38 in the final minutes against the Aggies. Kansas State, meanwhile, rallied from a 10-point deficit in the final six minutes to force overtime in Manhattan against the Aggies. Four overtimes later, the Wildcats stood tall, as 53-50 victors in what was arguably the best game in Big 12 history.
Arkansas missed the postseason in 2008, coach Bobby Petrino’s first season in Fayetteville. However the Razorbacks have rebounded with three straight January bowls, including last year’s BCS appearance in the Sugar Bowl. The former Southwest Conference member will be making its 12th Cotton Bowl appearance.
K-State did not get to a bowl from 2007-09, but the Wildcats returned to the postseason last year in the Pinstripe Bowl. This will be the 14th bowl in KSU history, and Bill Snyder has been the coach for 13 of those postseason games.
SA Take: The obvious public plays here are favorite and over. Surprisingly the public is close to being balanced on the side with many believing in Kansas State. The side is a tough call indeed. But we are leaning toward taking Arkansas and the UNDER. 64 points is a lot and just maybe there will be some sputtering with all the time out since their last games.
Sugar Bowl : Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
- Va. Tech Looks to Upset Favored Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines and the Virginia Tech Hokies will both be trying to pick up a win on January 3 when they battle at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Wolverines listed as 3-point favorites versus the Hokies, while the game’s total is sitting at 52.
Last time out for Michigan, they were a 40-34 winner as they battled Ohio State at home. Michigan failed to cover in the match as a 8.5-point favorite, while 74 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.
Virginia Tech was a 38-10 loser in its last match on the road against Clemson. They failed to cover the 7?point spread as favorites, while the total score of 48 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.
SA Take: VT only lost to Clemson this year. The problem is that they played them twice, and lost both times. The fact that Michigan isn’t named Clemson allows us to pick Va. Tech for the upset tonight.
Team records:
Michigan: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS
Virginia Tech: 11-2 SU, 4-9 ATS
Michigan most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When favored on the road are 5-5
Virginia Tech most recently:
When playing in January are 3-6
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 8-2
When an underdog at home are 4-1
A few trends to consider:
Michigan is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan’s last 6 games
Virginia Tech is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech’s last 6 games
Virginia Tech is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia vs. No. 25 Auburn
- Virginia Cavaliers +3
Saturday’s bowl action concludes from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta when Virginia, one of the nation’s bigsurprises this year, faces defending national champion Auburn in the Chick-Fil-A-Bowl. The Tigers are 3-point college football bets favorites on WagerWeb.com.
Auburn will end the 2011 season in the Georgia Dome and then open the 2012 season in the Georgia Dome. It’s also a chance for the Tigers to build some momentum heading into the offseason after being blown out in three of their last four SEC games this season by LSU, Georgia and Alabama. Virginia is also looking to get a bad taste out of its mouth after being routed 38-0 by Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale.
After losing a great deal of the roster including Heisman Trophy winning junior quarterback Cam Newton, the Tigers have endured an inconsistent season, finishing 4-4 in SEC play. The Tigers’ five losses this season have all come against ranked competition (four away from home).
While the Tigers were lifting a trophy last season, Virginia went 4-8 to finish outside the bowl picture for a third year in a row. It’s been a different story in 2011 for the Cavaliers, who nearly reached the ACC title game before getting crushed by then-sixth-ranked Virginia Tech in their regular season finale. Despite the loss, London was named the ACC Coach of the Year, as his team had been picked by the media to finish fifth in the division this year.
The Cavaliers’ strengths are their front seven on defense, which is a veteran group, and an offensive line that has had the same lineup all season. The Hoos have been able to run the ball well for most of the season.
Auburn still hasn’t found its replacement for Newton. Junior Barrett Trotter began as the starter, but saw highly touted true freshman Kiehl Frazier take more and more snaps. But everything changed in Auburn’s 17-6 win over Florida, when sophomore Clint Moseley took the starting job after a solid second-half performance against the Gators.
Moseley remained the starter, but Auburn never really looked like the same team that opened the year. Outside of solid play from running back Michael Dyer, the Tigers’ offense struggled along, ranking 10th in the SEC (328.2 yards per game), while the defense stayed near the bottom of the league, giving up 405.8 yards and 29.3 points per game.
However, Dyer has been suspended for this game. That left 20.2-carry, 103.5-yard-a-game hole for freshman Tre Mason and junior Onterio McCalebb to fill against Virginia. Mason has spent most of his time on special teams this year and carried 19 times for 97 yards all year. McCalebb has never rushed more than 22 times in a game in his Auburn career and has averaged 8.2 carries a game.
Virginia’s running back duo — junior Perry Jones and redshirt freshman Kevin Parks — are more battle-tested than their Auburn counterparts. They have combined for 1,544 yards and 13 touchdowns on 317 carries this year, or nearly 80 percent of the Cavaliers’ rush output.
Virginia and Auburn have met twice, with each winning by double digits on the opponents’ home field in 1997 and 1998. For the second time in school history (also 1974 to 1984), the Tigers have won four consecutive bowl games, including last season’s BCS National Championship game. The Cavaliers, winners of three of their last five bowl games, have allowed at least 31 points in three consecutive bowl games.
SportsbookAdvisor.com Pick: We are on UVA +3 in this game. We are going against the public and against conventional thinking. People are scared of SEC teams but Auburn has proven that they are a mediocre team and Virginia can catch fire and is a team to be feared right now.
Belk Bowl: N.C. State (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5)
- N.C. State Football
The N.C. State Wolfpack, representing the Atlantic Coast Conference, will face the Louisville Cardinals , co-champions of the Big East Conference, in the 2011 Belk Bowl on Tuesday night. Louisville will be making its first appearance in the game, while N.C. State returns for the second time, and first since 2005. This game is a pick’em on WagerWeb.com.
The Wolfpack will have the benefit of playing in front of a partisan crowd, but Louisville goes into the game on a bit of a hot streak, having closed the season with a 5-1 mark. The Cardinals have simply found their identity. Louisville’s quarterback is Teddy Bridgewater, the Big East’s rookie of the year. Bridgewater went 5-4 as a starter and is the Cardinals’ first true freshman quarterback in 35 years. The defense has been solid and will be one of the best the Wolfpack have faced this season. Louisville ranks No. 10 nationally in rushing defense (103.5 ypg), No. 14 in scoring defense (19.2 ppg) and No. 23 in total defense (327.8 ypg). The only team N.C. State has faced with a better defense is FSU, and the Wolfpack lost that game 34-0.
Cardinals starting receiver Michaelee Harris will miss this game with a knee injury. Harris leads the team with 37 receptions for 455 yards, and also has two touchdowns this season. Also, defensive end Greg Scruggs did not make the bowl trip. Scruggs was arrested recently week on drunken driving charges.
N.C. State sophomore David Amerson leads the nation with 11 interceptions, a school record for picks in a single season. N.C. State was one of the ACC’s most inconsistent teams this season, beating rival UNC for a fifth straight season, then losing to an unheralded Boston College team, and rebounding to shock then-ranked No. 7 Clemson, 37-13. The Pack was in a must-win situation against Maryland to reach bowl eligibility, and it didn’t look good when they trailed 41-14 with six minutes remaining in the third quarter. NC State put together the second-biggest comeback in school history, though, and beat the Terps 56-41 to get to the Belk Bowl.
The Cardinals and Wolfpack will be meeting for the fourth time in series history, with Louisville holding a 3-0 advantage. Louisville defeated the N.C. State, 27-10, in the last meeting, 2007, at Carter Finley Stadium. Louisville is making its 16th postseason trip and second straight under coach Charlie Strong, who is 13-11 in his first two seasons at the helm of the program. Louisville defeated Southern Miss, 31-28, in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl a year ago. All-time, the Cardinals are 7-7-1 in postseason play and have won their past two contests. State is making its 26th bowl appearance, and its 13-11-1 mark (.540) ranks 15th in winning percentage among all schools that have 15 or more bowl appearances.
SA Take: This is a tough pick to make but we have a slight lean toward N.C. State here based on the fact that they play a slightly tougher schedule and have the same record. Play the Wolfpack.
Poinsettia Bowl Pick : TCU vs. La. Tech
- Louisiana Tech in Tonight’s Bowl Game
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the TCU Horned Frogs will both be gunning for a victory on December 21 when they meet at Qualcomm Stadium in the S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Horned Frogs listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Bulldogs, while the game’s total is sitting at 57.
Last time out for Louisiana Tech, they were a 44-0 winner as they battled New Mexico State at home. Louisiana Tech covered in the match as a 23-point favorite, while 44 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.
In their last action, TCU was a 56-9 winner at home against UNLV. They covered the 39?point spread as favorites, while the combined score (65) was profitable news for OVER bettors.
SA Take: Public is all over TCU here and so of course you have to look harder at La. Tech. They are on a seven game win streak and have beaten some qulaity teams and lost very close ones to power houses. We like Terry Bradshaw’s alma mater here plus the 9.5 points. Take La. Tech.
Team records:
Louisiana Tech: 8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS
TCU: 10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS
Louisiana Tech most recently:
When playing in December are 3-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
TCU most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana Tech’s last 7 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
BetOnline proclaims RG3 the Heisman winner
- QB Griffin from Baylor
Well maybe it’s not official yet, but all you need to do is look at BetOnline.com’s Heisman Trophy odds to determine that it is a foregone conclusion that Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III will win college football’s most prestigious individual award Saturday.
Once the five Heisman finalists were announced last weekend, BetOnline named Alabama running back Trent Richardson the -170 favorite. That quickly changed as money started pouring in on RG3 at +300. Within a couple of hours after opening the odds, RG3 was the new favorite at BetOnline.
Despite the constant odds changes, bettors kept pounding RG3. Less than a week later and RG3 is the massive -2000 favorite.
“It’s rare to see such an explosive move in odds like that,” stated BetOnline’s Dave Mason. “It’s pretty obvious to me anyways that word has leaked – RG3 will definitely collect the hardware Saturday.”
Others disagree with Mason’s sentiments as money is still coming in on the other finalists. Who is your money on? Do you think RG3 is a lock, or is there value in the earlier favorites – Richardson and Andrew Luck?
BetOnline 2011 Heisman betting odds
Robert Griffin III -2000
Trent Richardson +375
Andrew Luck +500
Montee Ball +2500
Tyrann Mathieu +4500
Odds are subject to change.
SA Take: We like a small play on Richardson and a medium play on Luck here. No way we would lay those heavy odds on a QB from Baylor.
More about BetOnline.com
C-USA Championship Game: Southern Miss (10-2) at Houston (12-0)
- Case Keenum QB
Much more than the Conference USA Championship is on the line Saturday afternoon for No. 6 Houston, as the Cougars will land in their first BCS bowl game with a win at home over Southern Miss – it’s also expected to be the final home game for UH coach Kevin Sumlin, who has been targeted by schools such as Arizona State, Texas A&M and UCLA. Houston is a 14-point college football bets favorite on WagerWeb.com.
One year removed from a 5-7 season marred by an early season-ending knee injury to star quarterback Case Keenum, Houston joins top-ranked LSU as the only undefeated teams in the country. Making its third C-USA title game appearance, the Cougars have a chance to earn their first-ever BCS bid with a win and become the first team from the league to play in the Bowl Championship Series.
Southern Miss has a very good offense that averages 34.1 points per game. The offense is led by Austin Davis. The senior quarterback has thrown for 3,052 yards and 24 touchdowns this season. He has thrown a touchdown pass in 11 straight games. The Golden Eagles have the top rushing attack in the conference as well with an average of 207.8 yards per game on the ground.
Looking for their first C-USA title since beating Southern Mississippi 34-20 in the 2006 conference championship game, the Cougars lead the nation in total offense (613.3 yards per game), scoring (52.7 points per game) and passing yards (449.7 per game).
Keenum, the NCAA career leader in passing yards, touchdown passes and total offense, has completed 73.2 percent of his passes this season for 4,726 yards, with 43 TDs and just three interceptions. He was 44 of 54 for 559 yards with five TDs and an interception in his only previous game against the Golden Eagles, a 50-43 home win in 2009. Keenum needs 274 yards passing to become the first player in FBS history with three 5,000-yard seasons.
The Golden Eagles may have the best defense Houston has seen all season, ranking 26th overall (338.4 yards per game) and 25th in scoring (20.5 points per game). Southern Miss also has a school-record seven interception returns for touchdowns this season.
The Golden Eagles have lost three straight games at Robertson Stadium, including a 34-20 loss to the Cougars in the 2006 conference championship game. Southern Miss will be the first top-25 opponent at Robertson Stadium since 2008 (No. 25 Tulsa).
Sportsbook Advisor Take: We are all on Southern Miss. We love the way they have played all year and realize this is the chance to really do something nationally for these guys. Hosuton is a good football team. S. Miss is a good team as well and has a lot of charater. They may or may not win but we like getting the 13-14 points.
