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Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s Free Pick

Free PicksTonight February 14, 2013 if you are not busy romancing your lady you should tune into the epic matchup of Gonzaga at St. Mary’s. These are two teams that play each other tough and always leave it on the floor. Think West Coast UNC vs. Duke. Oddsmakers essentially have this game at a pick although some of the books have Gonzaga -1.

Gonzaga comes in nationally ranked at #10. They are 23-2 and 10-0 in their conference. Against the spread the Zags are 12-10-1. The team drops 78 points per game on their opponents and are lead in scoring by Kelly Olynyk who scores right under 18 points per game.  They only allow 61 points per game on defense. In fact, they have won their last six straight games and held the last 8 teams under 65 points.

St. Mary’s comes in looking very similar statistically. They average 77 points per game on offense and allow 64 points per game. They are 21-4 SU and 12-11 ATS.  They are lead in scoring my Matthew Dellavedova who scores 16 per game.

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The two teams have played once this season and Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s by just 5 points at Gonzaga.  On the road Gonzaga is 7-1 having it’s only loss to Butler by just one point. St. Mary’s has lost just one game at home and that was to rival Pacific.  The difference in opponent strength is one thing that sticks out to me. Gonzaga plays teams like Oklahoma, Butler, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Illinois and Clemson. This is a huge cross section of the basketball world. There is not a team that they are afraid to play. St. Marys doesn’t get the same kind of exposure. They play Loyolas, Pepperdines and Portlands every week. When they play out of conference they whoop up on the mighty Ivy League (sense the sarcasm please).

As much as I want to say that St. Mary’s will win this game I cannot see it. Gonzaga is nationally ranked, plays better opponents on a regular basis and has beaten St. Mary’s once this year already.  Furthermore, Gonzaga is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against St. Mary’s. Take Gonzaga -1

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Thursday, February 14th, 2013 2013, Basketball, NCAA

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