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Indiana vs Michigan Free Pick

February 02, 2013

indiana-hoopsTonight at 9:00 pm EST the number 1 Michigan Wolverines are at Indiana to take on the number 3 Hoosiers. The spread is currently Indiana -5.5. The initial line was -4.5. The public seems to be riding Michigan on this one which is weird that the line is moving the other way.  There could be some “smart money” on Indiana or bets from sharp bettors that cause sportsbooks to move the line. This in itself is gambling by the sportsbook manager.

Michigan doesn’t have much success when it comes to playing the Hoosiers at Indiana.  In the last 75 trips to Indiana the Wolverines have only managed to win 12 of them! That is a 12-63 record.  Indiana started the season off as preseason ranked number 1.  They are a stacked team. Michigan has worked it’s way up to number one.  This may be the most anticipated game of the season thus far.

Betting Biz
Getting inside the betting numbers we see that Michigan is 20-1 SU and 13-6-1 against the spread.  Indiana is 19-2 SU and just 10-9 ATS. At home the Hoosiers are 7-6 ATS. Michigan is 3-2 ATS when playing away.  Michigan is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indiana.  But Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.

Indiana averages an amazing 84 points per game on offense and allows 60. Michigan scores an average of 78 and allows just 58.  Both teams are coming off four straight wins. All four on both sides were impressive wins against Big Ten teams. The Big Ten is the best conference in basketball so any Big Ten win is impressive.  Both squads are 7-1 within the conference.

Summary
We come up with a line that we thing is fair before the actual lines come out. We agreed that Indiana -3 would be the perfect spread. It came out at 4.5 and we though it maybe a bit high. It is now at 5.5 and now think it is definitely high.  We are going with Michigan +5.5.  We are not saying that Michigan will win or even cover for that matter. We just think this is a value play. The spread is a little large and it is like getting a free bucket before you start the game. Take (675) Michigan +5.5. If you are looking for a sportsbook with great customer service check out Wager Web. These guys are top notch.

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Saturday, February 2nd, 2013 2013, Basketball, NCAA

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