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Virginia vs. N.C. State Free Basketball Pick

UVATonight at 7 pm EST the N.C. State Wolfpack are in Charlottesville, Virginia to take on the Virginia Cavaliers.  Virginia is favored by 4.5 points.  N.C State comes in with a 16-5 record and ranked 19th in the nation.  Virginia is 14-5 overall and 4-2 in the conference.  So why is UVA favored here by 4.5?

Virginia has only lost one game at home. Their other three losses came on the road. The one home loss was a close one to Delaware and would be considered by most experts to be a fluke.  Three of N.C. State’s four losses came on the road including their last two road games (at Maryland and at Wake). 

Against the spread this season UVA is 11-5-1 and a stellar 9-1-1 at home.  N.C. State is 10-7-1 and just 2-3-1 on the road.  Inside the raw numbers shows that N.C. State is a prolifically scoring team, averaging 80 points per game on offense. However, their defense leaves something to be desired as they allow 70 points per contest.  UVA plays a different kind of ball.  They score just 62 points per game but only allow 51.  Their focus is on defense and ball security.

75% of the betting public is taking N.C. State +4.5.  As much as we love going against the public, here is another one where we are thinking “Man, that is a lot of points to be laying to the #19 team in the nation who has a better overall record.”  On top of that, N.C. State is fresh off of a big win against their hated rival UNC.

How it will play out: UVA will try to slow things down and play their style of defense. N.C. State will push the ball and be successful with their fast paced style in the first half. N.C State will go into half time with the lead. UVA will come out in the second half and try to speed their tempo up to match that of N.C State. But that ain’t their kind of ball so they will be out matched. We are taking N.C. State +4.5, N.C. State moneyline as well as N.C. State first half line.  If you need a great online sportsbook to bet these wagers check out Justbet.cx

Trends to consider:

North Carolina State is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

Virginia is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against North Carolina State

Check out Top bet. They are currently offering a large onus to first time depositors.

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Tuesday, January 29th, 2013 2013, Basketball, NCAA

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