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January 11, 2013

This has to be one of the best matchups of the divisional playoffs as the Houston Texans ride into Foxboro, Massachusetts on Sunday to take on the New England Patriots. Houston has an overall record of 13-4 straight up and 10-6-1 against the spread. New England ended their regular season with a record of 12-4 straight up and 9-6-1 against the spread.

Last weekend the Texans needed everything they had to down a gritty Cincinnati Bengals team 19-13 to punch their ticket to Foxboro to face the Patriots. The Texans have not played that well of late losing their last two regular season games to fall out of the top seed for the playoffs. Their defense came on strong against the Bengals however, holding Cincinnati to only 198 total yards of offense.  

However, facing the Bengals offense is not like facing the Patriots offense. New England will be rested and ready following a week off thanks to a bye. The Patriots had the no. 1 offense in total yards this season in the NFL averaging over 427 per game and scoring nearly 35 points a game.

What might even be more important to remember is in week no. 14 Tom Brady threw 4 touchdowns against the Texans in route to a 42-14 win. Brady this season had 34 passes for touchdowns and only 8 that were intercepted. His favorite target is Wes Welker who caught 118 passes for over 1,350 yards.

For Houston to slow the Patriots down they will have to get a strong rush from J.J. Watt who had 20.5 sacks this season to lead the NFL. On offense, the Texans must count on Arian Foster for their running game. He carried the ball 32 times, his season high, for 140 yards. If he is successful on the ground, it will open the passing game for quarterback Matt Schaub to hit his favorite target Andre Johnson.

Houston has a record of 2-4 against the spread in their past 6 road games. In their past 4 games against New England, the Texans are just 1-3 against the spread.

The line at this time has the Patriots favored by 9 ½ and the point total for over under at 47 ½. Smart money takes the Houston plus the points and the over to cash out.

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Friday, January 11th, 2013 NFL Betting 2012

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