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Belk Bowl Free Pick

December 27, 2012

dukeNCAA Football Free Pick
December 27, 2012
Bank of America Stadium
6:30 pm EST

The Cincinnati Bearcats face the Duke Blue Devils in the Belk Bowl on Thursday Night. The Bearcats are 9-3 SU (straight up) and 8-4 ATS (Against the Spread).  Duke is 6-6 SU and 6-6 ATS respectively.  These two teams may be more similar than the records reflect.  If you look at their opponents you can see why the major difference in record. Cincinnati’s last five opponents: Miami, G.T., Clemson, FSU, and UNC are on a higher playing level than that of Cincinnati’s last five opponents: UConn, South Fla, Rutgers, Temple and Syracuse. 

Both teams average 31 points on offense. But defense is where you can see the major difference in numbers. Cincinnati’s defense allows only 17 points per contest vs. Duke’s 35 points per game allowed! Duke can’t stop teams. They can simply hope to contain them and then outscore them. 5dimes sportsbook currently has Cincinnati as 9.5 point favorites. This point spread makes perfect sense. That is until you look at where the game is being played.

Location location location.  It’s everything in real estate and in sports matchups.  It seems almost like the line makers neglected to factor in that Duke is essentially playing a home game. The game is in Charlotte, North Carolina. If you’ve never been to North Carolina you may not know that Charlotte is just a 2 hour drive from the Dukies campus. This should be a good turn out for the Duke fans who are vying to get behind the new and improving football program. The Duke basketball program has one of the most rabid fan bases in the country and these same folks want football greatness as well.

So what is gonna happen? Cincinnati will score plenty. Duke will hang in there with them and keep it close. The Blue Devils of Duke will have a shot at winning this one at the end. If you feel like going a little nuts take Duke moneyline. It’s +300!  But the safe bet is Duke plus the points. Bovada currently has Cincy -9.  William Hill and Justbet have the game at 9.5 and 60.5 at the time of writing this article (Thursday morning).

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Thursday, December 27th, 2012 Bowl Games, College Football 2012

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