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Dolphins vs Bills Free Pick

Thursday Night Football takes the NFL to upstate New York for an AFC East matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the host Buffalo Bills. Both teams have struggled this season as Miami enters the game with a record of 4-5 losses straight up and 4-4-1 against the spread. The host Bills are 3-6 straight up and 4-5 against the spread.

At one point during the season, the AFC East was all bunched up with all four teams sporting a record of 3 wins and 3 losses however that is no longer the case. New England defeated Buffalo last weekend 37-31 to become the clear favorite in the division. Miami lost last weekend to the Tennessee Titans.  

Miami’s Ryan Tannehill showed rookie inexperience at quarterback by throwing for three interceptions and the team’s rushing attack was held to only 21 yards between two runners. On defense the Dolphins, the feared front seven gave up 126 yards and one touchdown to Titan back Chris Johnson. Miami has the 22nd offense and 26th best defense in the league.

Buffalo has an offense ranked 15 in the league but they have the second worst (31st) defense in the league. That is disappointing for a team that made a number of acquisitions during the offseason to help their defense.

Buffalo is out rushing Miami per game 143 yards to 105, while the Dolphins have an advantage with the passing game 218 to 215 yards per game. However, the big difference is on defense against the run. Miami’s run defense is only giving up 94 yards per game on the ground, while Buffalo’s is giving up a whopping 164 per game.

The game will be high scoring with both offenses exploiting the weakness of both defenses. At this time the line has Buffalo favored by 2 ½ points. The total is set at 45 ½. Smart money bettors are taking the Bills less the points three to one, while the over under total is split down the middle. However, I like Miami plus the 2 ½ and the total to cash out for the over.

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Thursday, November 15th, 2012 NFL Betting 2012

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