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Look for “Luck” with the Colts giving 2 against the Browns

The 2-3 Colts lining up against the 1-5 Browns might not exactly invoke images of a classic contest, but this game should definitely be on the radar of spread bettors this week.  While Andrew Luck has been wildly inconsistent so far this year, the same could be said for his signal-calling counterpart in this one, Brandon Weeden. However, Luck has looked brilliant at times, while Weeden has struggled at his worst, and looked decent at his best.  Even so, it’s tough to predict if either of these team’s offenses will be executing enough to put a ton of points up.  But, Indy’s on paper dominance on the defensive side of the ball should be the separating factor that makes them, at -2, a great pick here.

The Colts have been deceptively strong against the pass this year (ranked 3rd in pass yards against), and with perennial Pro Bowl LB Robert Mathis likely coming back, they should see a marked improvement stopping the run.  With that in mind, it seems Weeden will likely struggle in a big way, and their one bright spot, first round pick Trent Richardson, will need to carry the football plenty – and the entire offense – to keep the Browns close enough to beat the spread.  While Richardson has looked like a future franchise back this year, his game is catered to running in between the tackles.  Unless he can consistently get the ball into the second level, and break some tackles when he gets there, the Browns will need to completely stop Luck to pull this one out.

The actual game probably won’t be a shining example of NFL-caliber football, but this one looks like a great opportunity for bettors to find some value in a less than likely place.  While the end-of-game point differential will probably be somewhere in the 3-10 range, it’s probably a safe bet taking the Colts by at least field goal here. Bet Colts at Bovada Sportsbook. Or if outside of the U.S. bet at Sportsbook.com

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Sunday, October 21st, 2012 NFL Betting 2012

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