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Go with the Green, and take the Pack giving 6 against STL

October 21, 2012

They may have been the victims of some questionable calls at the hands of the replacement refs during the first few weeks of the season, but even so, the 3-3 Packers have been underperforming relative to many analysts’ expectations so far this year.  With that in mind, along with a recent series of injuries to a number of their better role players, the Pack could understandably raise some definite red flags for bettors at this point in the season.

However, Green Bay still has a surging Aaron Rodgers (13:2 TD-INT ratio over the past 3 games) and one of the deepest – albeit dinged up – receiving corps in the league. That should be more than enough to have them easily cover the 6-point spread against the Rams this week.  Fresh off of an 18 point dominant victory against the then undefeated Texans last week, in Houston no less, Rodgers and Co. look much more like the team that was 15-1 in the regular season last year, than their current .500 record.

On the other side of the football, Saint Louis (also 3-3), is as close to the dictionary definition of “mediocre” as a professional football team could be.  While the team has developed one of the more consistent defenses in the league, fueled by DE Chris Long and the rest of the pass rush, they lack any semblance of a real weapon on defense.  Granted, the Packers ability to stop the pass has been nonexistent this season, but it’s hard to imagine Sam Bradford, Danny Amendola, and a struggling Stephen Jackson doing enough damage to keep pace with a Packers O that scored 42 against a far superior Texans D just a week ago.

Unless Aaron Rodgers puts in an absolute season worst performance – and accounts for at least 2 turnovers – this game seems like it should be over before the 4th quarter even starts, and in GB’s favor.  The team knows that their back is already against the wall in a highly competitive NFC North, and they’ll be treating this game like a must win.  A hot GB team giving 6 over an improved, yet still average, STL team seems like this week’s closest thing to a “lock” ATS.

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Sunday, October 21st, 2012 NFL Betting 2012

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