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Florida vs LSU Free Pick

It’s a possible preview of the SEC Championship Game on Saturday in Gainesville as LSU visits Florida in one of two Top-10 matchups in the nation’s best conference in Week 6. The Tigers are 2.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

The Gators were off last week so should be very well prepared. They last played two Saturday’s ago, thumping Kentucky 38-0. Jeff Driskel accounted for two touchdowns in UF’s 26th consecutive win in the Southeastern Conference series. The Gators (4-0, 3-0 SEC) also recorded their first shutout in conference play since a 52-0 victory against Mississippi State in 2001.

The Gators intercepted three passes in their 38-0 victory over Kentucky on Saturday, marking the most turnovers forced in a single game since UF forced four in its victory over Kentucky last season. The Gators, however, were only able to get seven points out of the three turnovers. That came on CB Jaylen Watkins’ 26-yard interception return for a touchdown in the second quarter.

LSU pretty clearly wasn’t very focused on Towson this past Saturday, winning 38-22 in the Tigers’ second straight ugly outing. QB Zach Mettenberger hit Odell Beckham Jr. five times for 128 yards and two touchdowns, and the quarterback finished 15 of 26 for 238 yards passing and no interceptions. Still, Mettenberger was sacked four times, missed some open receivers and a fumble he gave up — one of three LSU turnovers — led to the first of two touchdown runs by Towson’s Terrance West. His first TD run gave Towson, an FCS team, a stunning 9-7 lead in the second quarter before LSU (5-0) responded with 24 straight points.

Russell Shepard had a 78-yard touchdown run for LSU. It was Shepard’s first touchdown of the season, it was the longest gain of his career and it was LSU’s longest play from scrimmage since Jordan Jefferson’s 83-yard touchdown run against Tennessee in 2010.

Despite allowing season-highs for points (22), rushing yards (188) and total yards (291) last week against Towson, LSU’s defense is still rated among the best in the nation. The Tigers go into the Florida game allowing just 12.6 points (4th in SEC), 217.8 total yards (2nd in SEC), 83.0 rushing yards (3rd in SEC), and 134.8 passing yards (2nd in SEC).

These teams meet as ranked teams for the ninth-straight season. The Tigers have won the past two meetings — 41-11 last season in Baton Rouge and 33-29 in Gainesville in 2010 — and try for three straight over the Gators for the first time since 1977-80.

Last year’s win was the largest margin of victory in the series by the Tigers. LSU brings the nation’s longest overall regular season winning streak into the game at 18 straight, a streak that dates back to the win over Oregon to start the 2011 season. LSU hasn’t lost a regular season game since dropping a 31-23 decision to Arkansas in the 2010 regular season finale.

WagerWeb.com trends: Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Florida. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

SBA says: Florida has done well to this point to be undefeated and has really over performed. It may be time to get knocked back down to reality. The swamp is a tough place to play but LSU is a two touchdown better team. Take the Tigers.

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Saturday, October 6th, 2012 College Football 2012

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