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Kentucky vs. Louisville Final Four Free Pick

March 27, 2012

KENTUCKY vs. LOUISVILLE

Kentcuky ATS?

Kentucky will have a representative in the championship game Monday April 2. The only unknown  is if it will be the Kentucky Wildcats or the Louisville Cardinals. The two schools will meet Saturday March 31 in what is expected to be a fascinating matchup.

Kentucky won their Elite Eight matchup against the Baylor Bears by 12 points to get to the Final Four. Anthony Davis led the Wildcats with 18 points, 11 boards and six rejections. Teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had a team high 19 points in the win. Louisville played no die ball and came back from a double-digit deficit in the second half to knock off Florida. Russ Smith had 19 points, while Chane Behanan chipped in with 17.

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The two teams played December 31 of last year with the Wildcats coming out on top 69-62. Russ Smith led Louisville in that game with 30 points, but was the only Louisville player to score in double figures. The Cardinals could only muster a shooting percentage of 32% from the field and 22% from the three-point arc.

Kentucky did not fare much better. The Wildcats had 20 turnovers. They won the game by grabbing 20 more boards than Louisville. Forty-three free throw attempts did not hurt either.

This time around, the game will come down to defense. Louisville has the best defense in the country and Kentucky has one of the nation’s best offenses. Inside the battle will be between Terrence Jones and Davis of Kentucky and Chane Behanan and Gorgui Gieng of Louisville. If the defense of Louisville stays out of foul trouble and throws off the shot of Kentucky inside, then it could be a long game for the Wildcats.

Rebounding, as in the first game, will be an important part of the game. If Louisville cannot clear the defensive boards then Kentucky will get second chances all night long and that is a good recipe for victory.

The line opened with Kentucky as a 8 ‘-point favorite, but has since retreated to just 4 1/2 points. The total is 137 ‘ points.

Louisville needs to stop Kidd-Gilchrist if they have any hope of winning. He has played as good as or better than any other Wildcat including the all world Davis. In this game, the depth of Kentucky will be too much. David will also help the Wildcats reach the championship game. Louisville will get into early foul trouble and Kentucky will win the game SU.

Pick: Kentucky minus the points Total: UNDER

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