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NFL Thursday Bet: Jaguars at Falcons

December 15, 2011

Matt Ryan
QB Ryan of Atlanta

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Atlanta Falcons will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Georgia Dome, home to the surging Falcons.

Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 13-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game’s total is sitting at 42�.

The Jaguars were a 41-14 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Buccaneers. They covered the 2.5 point spread as underdogs, while the total score (55) made winners of OVER bettors.

Atlanta was a 31-23 winner in its last match on the road against the Panthers. They covered the 3 point spread as favorites, while the total score of 54 sent OVER bettors to the payout window.

SA In house Take: I think most of us are feeling that Jacksonville had a lucky outing last week and that Atlanta is the real deal here. Statistically the numbers point to betting Atlanta and the Under. We will take Atlanta and Over here. Jax is showing they can put together some offense now and we think this may be higher scoring than some of the analysts believe.

Team records:

Jacksonville: 4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS
Atlanta: 8-5 SU, 5-6-2 ATS

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After out gaining opponent are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 2-8

Atlanta most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being out gained are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville’s last 13 games
Jacksonville is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games
Atlanta is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Next up:
Jacksonville at Tennessee, Saturday, December 24
Atlanta at New Orleans, Monday, December 26

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Thursday, December 15th, 2011 NFL Betting 2011

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