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NFL Week 9: New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)

November 06, 2011

The Buffalo Bills were supposed to be one of the NFL’s worst teams this year. Instead, a win Sunday could potentially give them sole possession of first in the AFC East (depending on if the Patriots lose) and a sweep of their in-state brethren after beating the Giants earlier this season.

The Jets enter off a bye but have lost both games following their bye since Rex Ryan took over before the 2009 season and entered this year’s week off with consecutive wins, including 27-21 over San Diego on Oct. 23.

In those back-to-back wins, the Jets averaged 133 yards a game on the ground. Buffalo has been average defending the run, yielding 120 yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer should add a few wrinkles, getting the ball to featured back Shonn Greene and 11-year veteran LaDainian Tomlinson in the running game.

The Bills are coming off their most impressive defensive showing of the year after limiting the Redskins to 178 yards while registering 10 sacks (after entering that game with a total of four). Buffalo is still ranked 26th defensively, so the Jets can do damage … if they protect the ball. The Bills’ 18 takeaways lead the league, and their plus-9 turnover ratio tops the AFC. They picked off six passes the last time they beat Gang Green in 2009, and QB Mark Sanchez can still get a little wild. But he’s only been intercepted once in the last three games and tends to ratchet up his play in bigger games … and this one could ultimately determine a lot in the AFC East.

Keep an eye on Jets OLB Aaron Maybin. Jettisoned by the Bills in August, Maybin is becoming a force on sub packages. Despite being a role player, he leads the league with three forced fumbles and has managed three sacks; the 2009 first-round pick notched none with Buffalo. He’ll likely be further motivated to make a mark Sunday, especially while working against a line missing starting LT Demetrius Bell. It’s worth noting that Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will play with a sore chest but has plenty of checkdown options, notably RB Fred Jackson, at his disposal to try and negate Jets blitzers.

New York Jets wide receiver Plaxico Burress is questionable for the game with a lower back pain. Ryan said Burress is sore but remains hopeful his wide receiver will play against the Bills.

“He’s sore. We think he’ll be fine,” Ryan said of Burress, who was limited in Friday’s practice. “Hopefully he’s feeling good when we play on Sunday.”

Defensive linemen Mike DeVito (knee) and Kenrick Ellis (left ankle), and defensive back Isaiah Trufant (hamstring) were also limited at practice Friday and listed as questionable. Ryan says if the game against the Bills were Friday, it’s likely neither DeVito nor Ellis would play.


NFL FOOTBALL BETS RECORD VS. SPREAD — New York 3-4; Buffalo 5-1-1

SERIES RECORD — Bills lead 54-47

LAST MEETING — Jets beat Bills 38-7, Jan. 2, 2011

LAST WEEK — Jets had bye; Bills beat Redskins 23-0 at Toronto





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES —Last season, Jets outscored Buffalo by combined 76-21 in two games, while totaling 549 yards rushing. … Jets have lost first three road games for first time since 2007, when they opened 0-5 on road and finished 1-7. … In past three games against Bills, QB Mark Sanchez is 48 of 84 for 540 yards, with six TDs and one interception. … With 602 catches, LaDainian Tomlinson is nine short of passing Keith Byars for third on the NFL list among RBs. … CB Darrelle Revis — called by Jets coach Rex Ryan as “best player in football,” this week — has three interceptions in past two games against Buffalo. … Bills have won first four “home” games (including last week at Toronto), and have chance to match best home start since 1995. … Have opened season by scoring 20 or more points in first seven games for first time since an eight-game streak in 2002. … Bills defense jumped 10 spots to 20th in NFL’s rushing yards allowed rankings after limiting Redskins to 26 yards. … Buffalo allowed 200 yards rushing eight times last season, but has allowed 135 or more twice this year. … Bills averaging AFC-best 30.1 points per game. … With 46 TD passes in two-plus seasons in Buffalo, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is two short of passing Doug Flutie for fifth on team list. … Bills’ 10 sacks against Redskins were second-most in team history. … Bills have NFL-leading 14 interceptions — three more than all of last year — and have scored 82 points off of 18 takeaways. by Wagerweb Sportsbook.

Sportsbook Advisor  Take: Jets +3. It makes sense to us to take the team that has the pedigree here and not the team that is a start up and may be a flash in the pan. Can the Bills win this game. Yes. But there is value on the Jets getting points.

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Sunday, November 6th, 2011 NFL Betting 2011

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