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Free NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

October 30, 2011

The Eagles won their final game before their bye week and that was obviously a huge victory. They ‘improved’ to 2-4 which isn’t saying a lot but if they had lost to the Redskins and were sitting at 1-5, things would be different heading into this week. Philadelphia has some confidence now and with the Giants losing two weeks ago also, it is just two games out of first place in the NFC East. Despite being two games under .500, Philadelphia has outgained every opponent, and by an average of 100.6 ypg. We won with Philadelphia in that game against the Redskins and pointed out prior to that the problems were with turnovers. They have turned the ball over 14 times in their four losses with at least three in each game and that is not going to help pile up any wins. What makes that even more frustrating for Philadelphia is the fact that it has either had the lead or been within one score in the final five minutes of each of those losses. Against Washington, they won the turnover battle 4-2.

The Cowboys could beconsidered coming off a bye as well as they took care of the Rams with very little problem.The issue with Dallas is the same as it is with the Eagles and that is turnovers.The Cowboys are actually outgaining foes more than the Eagles are but they are just 3-3 to show for it. Turnovers on offense have been the killer and while the Eagles defense has been a liability this season, they are getting healthy and the bye came at a perfect time to key some of those key guys back. Head coach Andy Reid is 12-0 after a bye and whether or not it is just coincidence, this year it comes at a good time as we can still buy the Eagles low as they continue their upswing. With this line, I feel the value is on the Eagles as the linesmakers are saying these teams are even on a neutral field or that Dallas may be even a little bit better. I’m not sure if that is the case as we can’t go by records, but by the fact that the Cowboys have the ability to step on their own foot yet again. The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games following a cover as a double-digit favorite while going 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games after the defense allowed single digits in points in their previous game. Dallas has covered the last five meetings in this series and along with the Eagles rough start, the majority of the action has come in on Dallas yet we have seen the line move in the direction it should not be going.

Free Pick: 3* (230) Philadelphia Eagles

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Sunday, October 30th, 2011 NFL Betting 2011

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