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Saturday Free NCAA Football Pick and Preview

Sport: College Football
Game: North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers
Date/Time: 10/22/2011 12:00PM EST
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels
Reason: Clemson has been on an absolute roll and there is no reason to think the public
won’t be all over the Tigers once again. They are reaching a territory this
program has not seen in a long time and it may be time to bail. As of Wednesday,
87 percent of the betting action has come in on Clemson and that will likely
only go up as we get closer to game day. The Tigers are a perfect 7-0 straight
up and a perfect 6-0 ATS against FBS teams so with the public once again riding
this string, we will sell while it is high. North Carolina is coming off a loss
against Miami last week as it outgained the Hurricanes by 118 total yards but
its comeback fell short after falling behind by 24 points. The Tar Heels will be
facing a strong offense so they cannot fall behind early like they did it each
of their last two games so it will be up to the defense to hold its own and for
the offense to finally get some early production.The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more.North Carolina will have one goal in mind and that is to control the clock which means plenty from the running game and that should not be an issues. Clemson’s quest will be to slow down running back Giovani Bernard, who will be trying to become the first back in North Carolina history with six consecutive 100-yard games. The Tar
Heels have some size up front, so Clemson’s defensive line may get its toughest
test of the season. North Carolina’s offensive line checks in at close to an
average of 320 lbs. On the other side, the Tar Heels are ranked 24th in the
country in scoring defense and while Clemson is coming off the most ever points
it has scored in an ACC road game, this is as of the tougher tests it will have.
When facing the two toughest defenses through six FBS games, Clemson was held to
its lowest offensive output against Florida St. and Virginia Tech, an average of
383 ypg, which was over 100 ypg fewer than its season average. So don’t expect a
repeat of last week. The comeback and subsequent win last week by Clemson was no
doubt impressive but with that comes public backing as expected as well as a
letdown of sorts. The Tar Heels fall into that contrarian situation. Play
against teams that are coming off a road win scoring 38 or more points, in the
second half of the season. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the
last five seasons with the average point differential actually favoring the
play-on teams by +5.4 ppg.

 

3* (327) North Carolina Tar Heels

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Friday, October 21st, 2011 College Football Betting 2011

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